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高盛交易利潤(rùn)銳減

高盛交易利潤(rùn)銳減

Stephen Gandel 2012-07-19
高盛今年第二季度自營(yíng)投資收入驟降90%。之前,從2009年到2010年,高盛連續(xù)多個(gè)季度沒(méi)有一個(gè)交易日出現(xiàn)過(guò)虧損。第二季度的虧損到底是什么原因造成的,目前還不清楚,但業(yè)界分析可能與Facebook上市后的低迷表現(xiàn)有關(guān)。

????這回不是倫敦鯨,但像摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)一樣,高盛(Goldman Sachs)也栽在了自營(yíng)交易上。

????今年第二季度,高盛自營(yíng)股票交易虧損1.12億美元。雖然比不上摩根大通58億美元的巨額損失,但跟高盛自己第一季度盈利9億美元的業(yè)績(jī)比起來(lái)仍然可是說(shuō)是大幅下跌。而且高盛表示,虧損數(shù)字中已經(jīng)包括了私募股權(quán)業(yè)務(wù)取得的收益,這意味著高盛所持公開上市股票的損失應(yīng)該顯著超出1億美元。

????高盛自營(yíng)債券交易的表現(xiàn)相對(duì)好一些,但也沒(méi)好到哪里去。第二季度債券交易利潤(rùn)下降62%至2.22億美元??傮w而言,高盛第二季度自營(yíng)交易收入環(huán)比驟降90%,減少到1.69億美元。

????高盛長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直被視為一家交易公司,自營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)一貫優(yōu)于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。從2009年到2010年,高盛連續(xù)多個(gè)季度沒(méi)有一個(gè)交易日出現(xiàn)過(guò)虧損。

????第二季度的情況顯然不是這樣,但直到目前也還不清楚到底是什么原因,高盛的一位發(fā)言人拒絕對(duì)公司具體的投資事項(xiàng)發(fā)表評(píng)論。過(guò)去幾個(gè)月里,高盛曾表示打算強(qiáng)化歐洲業(yè)務(wù)。沒(méi)錯(cuò),說(shuō)的就是遭受債務(wù)危機(jī)和經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩雙重打擊的歐洲。但此次高盛表示,第二季度對(duì)歐洲持謹(jǐn)慎立場(chǎng)。

????另一個(gè)可能的解釋是Facebook。第二季度高盛通過(guò)出售部分Facebook持股獲得了2.35億美元。這幾乎是高盛一年前投資額的兩倍。但像其他銀行一樣,不管是否出售,高盛都需要定期對(duì)這些投資的賬面價(jià)值進(jìn)行調(diào)整。Facebook IPO之前的一年,其股票在非公開交易市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了上漲。從一些非公開交易來(lái)看,F(xiàn)acebook的股價(jià)甚至一度超過(guò)最終于今年5月IPO時(shí)的價(jià)格38美元。IPO之后,F(xiàn)acebook股價(jià)最近已跌至27.50美元。這一價(jià)格可能低于高盛在第一季度末給予這項(xiàng)投資的估值,結(jié)果造成了損失。

????鑒于多德-弗蘭克法案(Dodd-Frank)的沃克爾法則(Volcker rule)以及其他限制銀行進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性投資的監(jiān)管改革,高盛稱已經(jīng)縮減了交易業(yè)務(wù)。但沃克爾法則目前尚未正式實(shí)施。而且,也不清楚高盛相比自營(yíng)交易大賺其錢的第一季度做了哪些改變。高盛第二季度的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值(value-at-risk)為9,200萬(wàn)美元,環(huán)比基本持平;風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值是一家公司在一個(gè)交易日內(nèi)可能發(fā)生的損失,基本上反映其交易量的多少。

????有人猜測(cè),高盛已將部分風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性交易轉(zhuǎn)到了沃克爾法則允許的造市商業(yè)務(wù)。但這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)第二季度的收入也環(huán)比下降了46%。

????金融危機(jī)以來(lái),高盛流失了很多一流的交易員,這些人紛紛轉(zhuǎn)投對(duì)沖基金或其他公司。如今,這個(gè)問(wèn)題的后果可能終于開始顯現(xiàn)。高盛的業(yè)績(jī)總體好于預(yù)期,完全是因?yàn)檫^(guò)去一個(gè)月來(lái)分析師們下調(diào)高盛盈利預(yù)測(cè)的幅度超過(guò)了其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手?,F(xiàn)在,至少有一點(diǎn)是明確的,高盛看來(lái)已不是曾經(jīng)的利潤(rùn)大戶了。

????好消息是高盛可能已經(jīng)意識(shí)到了這一點(diǎn)。高盛首席財(cái)務(wù)官戴維?溫納告訴分析師們,他預(yù)計(jì)年底前公司前將削減5億美元費(fèi)用,主要將通過(guò)裁員大量高薪雇員來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。但當(dāng)一位分析師問(wèn)到,高盛計(jì)劃什么時(shí)候調(diào)低公司的高薪,使其下降到與其他華爾街公司相一致的水平時(shí),溫納卻含糊其辭,大致意思是高盛雇員的價(jià)值更高。要讓自詡為宇宙主宰者的人們認(rèn)清現(xiàn)實(shí)需要一個(gè)緩慢的過(guò)程。

????譯者:早稻米

????It's no London Whale, but, like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs (GS) had its own trading flop.

????Goldman's stock traders lost $112 million of the firm's own money in the second quarter. It's not even in the same tank, or really ocean, as JPMorgan's $5.8 billion loss, but it was a huge drop from the nearly $900 million in profit the bank made from trading stocks in the first quarter. And Goldman said that loss includes gains it made in its private equity business, which means its losses from its public stock holdings could have been considerably larger than just $100 million.

????Goldman's bond traders did better, but not much. Profits from debt trading fell 62% in the quarter to $222 million. In all, revenue from Goldman's own trading operations plunged 90% to $169 million in the quarter from three months ago.

????Goldman has long been known as a trading house, and has generally done a better job than rivals at producing consistent profits investing the firm's own money. The bank had a string of quarters in 2009 and 2010 in which it went without a single down trading day.

????That was clearly not the case this quarter, but it's not clear what caused the firm problems, and a Goldman spokesman declined to comment on the firm's specific investments. In the past few months, Goldman has said that it's looking to beef up its business in Europe, which has been hit by debt concerns and an economic slowdown. But Goldman said it took a cautious stance on Europe in the quarter.

????Another possible explanation could be Facebook (FB). Goldman raised $235 million selling a portion of its investment in Facebook during the quarter. That was nearly double what Goldman paid for those shares just over a year ago. But Goldman, like other banks, has to constantly reprice on their books the value of its investments whether it sells them or not. In the year leading up to Facebook's IPO, the private value of the shares rose. Some private transactions seemed to suggest that Facebook's shares were worth more than the $38 the company eventually sold its stock at in its May IPO. Since then, Facebook's shares have fallen to a recent $27.50. That could be lower than where Goldman marked its investment at the end of the first quarter, producing a loss.

????Goldman has said it has shrunk its trading business in preparation for Dodd-Frank's Volcker rule and other regulatory reforms that will make it harder for banks to make risky bets. But the Volcker rule hasn't been put into place yet. And it's not clear what changed from a quarter ago, when so-called principal transactions, which is when the bank risks its own money rather than completing a trade for a customer, was a big money maker. Goldman's value-at-risk, which tracks how much the firm could lose in one day and generally is seen as a measure of how much trading the firm is doing, was $92 million in the quarter, basically unchanged from the quarter before.

????Some have guessed that Goldman has shifted a portion of its risky trading into its market making unit, a business that is allowed under the Volcker rule. But that unit saw a drop in revenue in the second quarter as well, down 46% from the first three months of the year.

????Goldman has lost a lot of its top traders to hedge funds and elsewhere since the financial crisis, and that could be finally catching up with the firm. Overall, Goldman's earnings were better than analyst expected. But that's only because in the past month, analysts had cut their estimatesfor what Goldman could earn more than any of the firm's rivals. What's clear, is that at least for now, Goldman no longer appears to be the profit powerhouse it once was.

????The good news is that the firm may be starting to realize that. Chief financial officer David Vinar told analysts that he expects the firm will cut $500 million in expenses by the end of the year, mostly by laying off a number of the firm's higher paid employees. Still, when asked by an analyst when Goldman plans to bring its high compensation in line with other Wall Street firms, Vinar demurred, basically saying that Goldman employees were worth more. Self-realization for masters of the universe is a slow process.

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